Lessons From the Election

1)  The 3rd Legislative District, in Downtown Spokane, was thought to potentially be in play after redistricting.  When Lisa Brown retired and turned it into a contest between Representative Andy Billig and City Council Member Nancy McLaughlin, that created a real benchmark that the 3rd hadn't seen in years, between high profile candidates from both parties, a real contest in the 3rd LD.

Except that it wasn't.  McLaughlin only got 42% of the vote, and I think it's going to be a long, long time before you see a Republican of any sort of profile try it again.

2)  If Rob McKenna can't win the Governorship in this climate, with his profile and credentials, against that opposition, then there's no reason not to believe that the Democrats won't hold the Governor's office for another 26 years.

3)  From my viewpoint, as someone who really likes education politics, McKenna made two really big mistakes.  The first was in treating Race to the Top like it mattered, and like it was worth winning, but the bigger mistake was embracing a Local Levy Swap that he didn't really understand and that gave Jay Inslee the opportunity to take away McKenna's high ground on taxes and school funding.  McKenna eventually had to go into a bit of a retreat and get arm distance from an idea that he had made a keystone of his school funding program ("It's not my idea!", he said on Robert Mak's program), but the damage had already been done.

4)  Cheryl Pflug went to bed smiling last night.

5)  If the King County results trend towards Kathleen Drew, and she overtakes Kim Wyman for Secretary of State, that will be the biggest damned travesty of the entire cycle.  Wyman is clearly more qualified and has better credentials, and the only way that I could see that someone would look at the two candidates and vote for Drew is if they put more stock in party affiliation than anything else.

6)  If Kim Wyman does lose, here's the reason why:



It isn't fair to smear Wyman with that voter suppression brush, but the entire GOP brand was hurt this cycle by the exact sort of nonsense in that video.  The Washington Policy Center at least tries to message it in terms of election security; those Republicans who won't even bother with the pretense are toxic.

7)  The Gumpian Genius of Jay Inslee.  In early spring I thought McKenna had already won, because Jay looked like crap after he resigned his seat in Congress, and the campaign was just plain awful.

And then he won the primary, convincingly, and it was off to the races.  He was slow and steady, implacable when McKenna was sometimes manic, and stuck to his themes.  In a political environment where Scott Walker has some profile, the "You don't know the real Rob McKenna" ads hurt.  The one tying him to the Tea Party was a lie, but an effective one.  All glory and honor to Team Inslee, because they were masterful.

8)  Ya coulda won that thing, JL.

9)  Say what you will about Gingrich or Santorum, but they had a core and they were willing to stick to it.  Mitt didn't.  If you try to be all things to all people, you'll be nobody to anyone.

10)  About 5 months until the filing deadline for 2013!

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15 Thoughts Upon Looking Through the PDC Reports Today

1)  Considering the late start she got off to because of the fundraising freeze, and the incredible lead that Guy Palumbo had, Rosemary McAuliffe having raised $40k+ already is pretty good.

2)  Nancy McLaughlin, running for the open seat in the 3rd LD that was vacated by Lisa Brown, has raised about $52,000.  By this time in 2010 Michael Baumgartner, running against incumbent Chris Marr in the 6th LD, had raised about $90,000.  Plus, given that Andy Billig is sitting on $80,000 cash-on-hand, I think it's pretty clear which way the winds are blowing.  Given that she's a sitting city council member in Spokane, I though there would be more party support there for what could've been an interesting race in the redrawn 3rd LD.

3)  The fact that Matt Shea and Amy Biviano both have about the same amount of cash-on-hand in their race in the 4th LD is fascinating.  This is the first time that Rep. Shea has had to stand for election since Senator McCaslin passed away in January of 2010, and it'll be interesting to see what kind of memory conservative voters in the 4th have regarding the ridiculous electioneering to fill that spot last year.

4)  Kevin Parker is a fucking amazing fundraiser.  Seriously.

5)   Matt Manweller might be able to fundraise at Kevin Parker levels.  Seriously.

6)  Of the 3 Republican candidates looking to take over for John Ahern in the 6th LD, the one with the thinnest resume is raising the most money.

7)  In the 8th LD Brad Klippert has taken one individual donation, for $25.  The rest of his money is mainly from PACs.  If he's taking Jay Clough for granted, that would be a mistake.

8)  You've got two internecine GOP v. GOP elections in the 12th LD, with Cary Condotta against Robert Morse and Mike Armstrong against Brad Hawkins.  Hawkins made a giant personal loan to himself, but there's still nearly $24,000 in cash and in-kind donations to a challenger running against a reliably conservative incumbent.  What's wrong with Mike Armstrong?

9) Remember back when the Redistricting Commission made the 15th LD majority minority? It hasn't made a noticeable difference.

10)  The 36th LD is fun electoral politics.

11)  For someone who got into the race late, Troy Kelley is doing really, really well on the fundraising front.  He's almost lapped Mark Miloscia, and only trails Craig Pridemore.

12) Clint Didier's campaign for Lands Commissioner is really, really quiet right now.

13)  The fact that Greg Nickels, the last to get into the race, has raised more than all the other candidates is kind of fascinating.  If he makes the general ahead of Kathleen Drew, who has been killing him in endorsements, that would be pretty incredible and speak to the importance of name recognition, even if people don't realize why they recognize the name.

14)  Vote Wyman.

15)  After Lands Commissioner, the second most important elected office for trees is Superintendent of Public Instruction because of the State Trust lands.  Don't believe me?  Observe that some of the biggest donors to the Randy Dorn Re-Election campaign are Weyerhaeuser, the Washington Forest Protection Association, Longview Timber, Hampton Lumber, and International Forest Products Limited (Interfor).

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Marshalling the Resources

If you have $1,000,000 to spend on elections, are you better off spending it all on one unconvincing gubernatorial candidate, or trying to shore up 10 different House and Senate races that are just as fundamental to "Don't be the next Wisconsin!" as the Inslee/McKenna contest is?

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To My Conservative Friends

I don't like the guy, and I likely won't be voting for him, but every time you pass along something as transparently stupid as Obama was never editor of the Harvard Law Review or keep harping about the dead-and-buried birth certificate issue, you look ridiculous. There are plenty of the man's ideas that can be attacked on their merits, or lack thereof, and that's how you're going to get independent voters.

This is why I'm absolutely disappointed that an idea guy couldn't get more traction in the Republican primary, because a vigorous debate over ideas would do our country a lot of good right now, and I don't think that a guy like Mitt Romney who is built on a foundation of sand has the chops to pull it off. You can't debate health care reform when you yourself pushed through an almost identical plan when you were Governor. Obama is pretty good on foreign policy--sorry, Steve Beren, but "My administration got Osama bin Laden" probably is enough to cancel everything else out--and that leaves domestic issues where "But the recovery could have been faster!" and "Transvaginal ultrasounds are swell!" aren't going to get you anywhere.

Here's to 2016.

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Mitt v. Newt

The humorous thing about Mitt saying that Newt "Can't take the heat" is that Mitt has sputtered pretty hard in the debates when he's actually been challenged head-on. Perry got under his skin a few weeks back, and Newt got him in the last one with the line about Ted Kennedy.

If Mitt Romney can't handle softball attacks from his fellow Republicans, how can anyone really think that he'll be able to handle Obama?

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In The Cold Light of Day...

Yesterday I had a visceral reaction to Rob McKenna bowing out of a meeting with the WEA at the last minute, but here's a more rational view:

What Rob has done is effectively give control of the education narrative to the WEA. If he had filled out the questionnaire in his own words, he would have made the product; instead, he's left a giant cypher where his own opinions could have been. If he had done the interview he could have responded to criticism directly; instead, he'll make time for Excellent Schools Now, whose one-page list of priorities is some of the most generic pablum in the ed reform community today.

He's worked hard to differentiate himself from governors like Kasich and Walker, but something like this just feeds into the narrative that is being set up. When even Frank Luntz is acknowledging that Occupy Wall Street is making inroads in the public consciousness, and then the AG deliberately tweaks the nose of a union like this.....the attack ad will write itself.

This was an unforced error that you'll be hearing about for the next 11 months.

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When the Attack Ads Are True

They said he was a carpetbagger. He said nope, I'm from here, went to school here, and I am coming back to make a difference for Spokane.

A year later, he's on Seattle TV announcing his run for US Senate.

They said he was using the state legislature as a stepping stone. He said nope, Chris Marr is just projecting, and I'm here to make a difference for the 6th LD.

A year later, he's running for Senate against Maria Cantwell.

The thing about having the most expensive legislative race in history in 2010 is that it creates a ton of cannon fodder, and when you announce that you're pursuing a different office in 2011--not even a year later--the bodies in the closet haven't even had a chance to decompose into the skeletons in the closet.

So now the Washington State GOP is going to end up running a candidate who will be hamstrung by fundraising rules (he can't raise money during the legislative session, I believe, or during any special session), who has words not even a year old that are going to come back to haunt him, who has no statewide profile, and whose major issue in a federal race is going to be wars that have absolutely no support.

If you want to guess what the spread of Baumgartner vs. Cantwell will be, start with the spread for Cantwell vs. McGavick and then add 5 points.

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That Little Red Spot? It's the 3rd LD.

There are roughly 10 legislative districts in Eastern Washington, with 30 legislators between them. Of those 30, only three are Democrats. They're all in the 3rd LD, downtown Spokane.

I only bring it up because while the 3rd might be one of the bluest districts in Washington State, I'm not sure that's always going to be the case. Prior to this election going back quite a few years the Republicans were lucky to poll 33% to 35% in either the primary or the general; this year the two GOP contenders, Dave White and Morgan Oyler, were both right around 40%. If Lisa Brown were to actually run for Governor in 2012 (she shouldn't, but...) and Timm Ormsby were to slide into her Senate spot, it could be competitive. Especially if we're still looking at these same lousy unemployment numbers.

Bob Apple? Louise Chadez? Morgan Oyler? Dave White? Someone we don't know yet? Who ya got?

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