McKenna Conceded, So Let's Start Looking at 2016

I'm still rather shocked that Rob McKenna lost.

He'd won statewide races before; Inslee hadn't.  Inslee's campaign was a bit of a shambles early on, until he won the August primary and never looked back.  McKenna had been priming for this run since arguably his days on the King County Council, had the state GOP as confident as they've ever been, and still--it didn't happen.

We've known arguably for 5 years that Rob McKenna would be the GOP candidate in 2012.  Rossi had to get another swing at the pinata after coming so close in 2004, but McKenna was clearly next in line.  Who's next in line after Rob McKenna?

Let's set aside, first, the most recent GOP candidates for US Senator.  Dino Rossi (2010) has already had two tries, and Michael Baumgartner (2012) may not poll above 40%.  Conceivably Clint Didier, who lost to Rossi in the 2010 primary (and this year for Lands Commissioner) could try to step up to a run for Governor, but he's also a two-time loser.

What about the GOP Congressional delegation?  Certainly not Doc Hastings.  Dave Reichert is an interesting possibility, given his King County connections, and the state just elected a Representative to be their Governor, but the rumors about his health could dog him, and running for statewide office is a different proposition than winning the 8th CD.  Cathy McMorris-Rogers could eventually be Speaker of the House, would have to give up her House seat to run for Governor, and has a sinecure in her CD that is nearly unmatched, so I don't think she'd try.

Jamie Herrera-Beutler would be interesting.  She's an attractive candidate and a good public speaker, but has been dogged by stories that she doesn't have town hall meetings because she can't handle them, and as Craig Pridemore sadly discovered coming out of Southwest Washington to win a statewide office isn't an easy thing to do.

What about other recent Republican losers for statewide office?  We've already talked about Didier.  James Watkins wasn't able to take out Troy Kelley after smearing him like mad.  Reagan Dunn just tripped over his stepping stone when he lost the Attorney General contest to Bob Ferguson, and on this line you can't get from point A to point C if you're not able to touch point B first.  John Adams and Sharon Haunek aren't viable.

From the legislative ranks, then?  When you look at the Senate Republican Caucus there really isn't anyone who jumps out.  Steve Litzow had a good win on Tuesday in a competitive district, and in the next four years there is a shot he could raise his profile enough to stand out, but he's also a pro-choice Republican which is something that just begs for a challenge from the right.  Mark Schoesler is a solid conservative who has chaired JLARC and knows the budget as well as anyone, but I can't imagine him doing well at all on the west side.

It's much the same story in the House Republican Caucus.  I could see Matt Shea trying it, but Clint Didier's losses pretty much show you the ceiling that the Tea Party/Liberty candidates have in this state.  He's also pretty damaged after his most recent campaign, and while those scandals may not have been enough to cost him the 4th LD they would be absolutely fatal in a statewide election.  Richard DeBolt is an interesting notion.  I'd love to see Joel Kretz run, since he's in my LD, but I don't know why the hell he'd leave God's country up in Ferry County to spend all his time in Olympia.

Stupid ideas?  Rodney Tom switches parties (again!).  Kirby Wilbur.  Nansen Malin.  Mac Strong.  Jason Mercier.

It'll be an interesting four years.

Read more here, if any.

Lessons From the Election

1)  The 3rd Legislative District, in Downtown Spokane, was thought to potentially be in play after redistricting.  When Lisa Brown retired and turned it into a contest between Representative Andy Billig and City Council Member Nancy McLaughlin, that created a real benchmark that the 3rd hadn't seen in years, between high profile candidates from both parties, a real contest in the 3rd LD.

Except that it wasn't.  McLaughlin only got 42% of the vote, and I think it's going to be a long, long time before you see a Republican of any sort of profile try it again.

2)  If Rob McKenna can't win the Governorship in this climate, with his profile and credentials, against that opposition, then there's no reason not to believe that the Democrats won't hold the Governor's office for another 26 years.

3)  From my viewpoint, as someone who really likes education politics, McKenna made two really big mistakes.  The first was in treating Race to the Top like it mattered, and like it was worth winning, but the bigger mistake was embracing a Local Levy Swap that he didn't really understand and that gave Jay Inslee the opportunity to take away McKenna's high ground on taxes and school funding.  McKenna eventually had to go into a bit of a retreat and get arm distance from an idea that he had made a keystone of his school funding program ("It's not my idea!", he said on Robert Mak's program), but the damage had already been done.

4)  Cheryl Pflug went to bed smiling last night.

5)  If the King County results trend towards Kathleen Drew, and she overtakes Kim Wyman for Secretary of State, that will be the biggest damned travesty of the entire cycle.  Wyman is clearly more qualified and has better credentials, and the only way that I could see that someone would look at the two candidates and vote for Drew is if they put more stock in party affiliation than anything else.

6)  If Kim Wyman does lose, here's the reason why:



It isn't fair to smear Wyman with that voter suppression brush, but the entire GOP brand was hurt this cycle by the exact sort of nonsense in that video.  The Washington Policy Center at least tries to message it in terms of election security; those Republicans who won't even bother with the pretense are toxic.

7)  The Gumpian Genius of Jay Inslee.  In early spring I thought McKenna had already won, because Jay looked like crap after he resigned his seat in Congress, and the campaign was just plain awful.

And then he won the primary, convincingly, and it was off to the races.  He was slow and steady, implacable when McKenna was sometimes manic, and stuck to his themes.  In a political environment where Scott Walker has some profile, the "You don't know the real Rob McKenna" ads hurt.  The one tying him to the Tea Party was a lie, but an effective one.  All glory and honor to Team Inslee, because they were masterful.

8)  Ya coulda won that thing, JL.

9)  Say what you will about Gingrich or Santorum, but they had a core and they were willing to stick to it.  Mitt didn't.  If you try to be all things to all people, you'll be nobody to anyone.

10)  About 5 months until the filing deadline for 2013!

Read more here, if any.

Marshalling the Resources

If you have $1,000,000 to spend on elections, are you better off spending it all on one unconvincing gubernatorial candidate, or trying to shore up 10 different House and Senate races that are just as fundamental to "Don't be the next Wisconsin!" as the Inslee/McKenna contest is?

Read more here, if any.

In The Cold Light of Day...

Yesterday I had a visceral reaction to Rob McKenna bowing out of a meeting with the WEA at the last minute, but here's a more rational view:

What Rob has done is effectively give control of the education narrative to the WEA. If he had filled out the questionnaire in his own words, he would have made the product; instead, he's left a giant cypher where his own opinions could have been. If he had done the interview he could have responded to criticism directly; instead, he'll make time for Excellent Schools Now, whose one-page list of priorities is some of the most generic pablum in the ed reform community today.

He's worked hard to differentiate himself from governors like Kasich and Walker, but something like this just feeds into the narrative that is being set up. When even Frank Luntz is acknowledging that Occupy Wall Street is making inroads in the public consciousness, and then the AG deliberately tweaks the nose of a union like this.....the attack ad will write itself.

This was an unforced error that you'll be hearing about for the next 11 months.

Read more here, if any.

A Small Bit of Advice for the Rob McKenna Campaign

When you go around saying that it's a shame that Washington placed so low in the Race to the Top competition, the statement assumes that Race to the Top was worth winning. When you say Yes to RttT, you're also saying yes to:

--Giving away state control of the curriculum
--Creating a reliance on impermanent federal dollars
--Embracing reform models that are anything but proven to work

If Rob McKenna thinks that Race to the Top is the model to go off of, he's a far distance away from someone we want leading the schools.

Read more here, if any.

I Have a Hard Time Seeing This....

....but would the conservative segment of the Washington State GOP really consider running a strong primary against "RINO" Rob McKenna come 2012?

The Democrats I talk to all say that McKenna is the biggest threat when it comes to the idea of a Republican taking the Governor's mansion, and if you put him side-by-side with any of the Democratic contenders (Inslee, Brown, Hunter?, Marr?), I think he's at least competitive. He's got a better resume than Dino Rossi did.

I also don't understand the general mood of the GOP being "dead" here in Washington. They just took away a long-time Democratic seat in the 16th LD (Bill Grant's old spot), they've got competitive races coming up next November (John Driscoll in the 6th being one), they've got a bit of a national tide on their side....sure, it'll be hard work, but why so much sturm un drang?

Horse's Ass take: political satire. Maybe?

Read more here, if any.