When the Attack Ads Are True

They said he was a carpetbagger. He said nope, I'm from here, went to school here, and I am coming back to make a difference for Spokane.

A year later, he's on Seattle TV announcing his run for US Senate.

They said he was using the state legislature as a stepping stone. He said nope, Chris Marr is just projecting, and I'm here to make a difference for the 6th LD.

A year later, he's running for Senate against Maria Cantwell.

The thing about having the most expensive legislative race in history in 2010 is that it creates a ton of cannon fodder, and when you announce that you're pursuing a different office in 2011--not even a year later--the bodies in the closet haven't even had a chance to decompose into the skeletons in the closet.

So now the Washington State GOP is going to end up running a candidate who will be hamstrung by fundraising rules (he can't raise money during the legislative session, I believe, or during any special session), who has words not even a year old that are going to come back to haunt him, who has no statewide profile, and whose major issue in a federal race is going to be wars that have absolutely no support.

If you want to guess what the spread of Baumgartner vs. Cantwell will be, start with the spread for Cantwell vs. McGavick and then add 5 points.