The Way Forward for Randy Dorn

As I sit here Sunday morning Randy Dorn trails Terry Bergeson by about 6.2% in their contest for OSPI here in Washington State, which is a pretty dramatic narrowing from the 11% lead Bergeson had on Election Night. A couple of thoughts:

1) About 27% of the votes went to the other candidates (Blomstrom, Blair, Duncan, and Hansler). If this is a "change" election, that could be trouble for the incumbent.

2) On the other hand, if you go back to the 2004 primary Bergeson only garnered 36% of the primary vote to Judith Billings' 35%, but she blitzed Billings in the general election by more than 11%.

3) Comparatively, then, a 6%+ lead now is a better starting point than a 1% lead in 2004. Consider, too, than in the 2004 primary she didn't take Thurston and Snohomish counties, but this time she did, a comparison that might not be valid because of the change to the top 2 primary.

4) Dorn's campaign only really took flight in May, and in a scant three months he was able to get within 6 points. That could bode well for him in the general.

Were I advising Randy Dorn, here's what I'd suggest:

1) He got absolutely blitzed in some of the smaller counties: 23% in Pacific, 25% in Skamania, 18% in Wahkiakum, 23% in Cowlitz, etc. I think he needs to prompt the network he has (the PSE, the WEA, Where's the Math?, etc.) to write letters to some of those small-town newspapers pointing out the deficiencies in the Bergeson administration. In Ferry County they might not bother with the Spokane Spokesman-Review, but everybody takes the Republic News-Miner. Talk to those folks about the cost of the WASL and the rising cost of transportation, and you'll get their attention.

2) Sort of building off of the above point, putting out a stronger position statement on the struggles of small schools and what he would do about it would get attention. Send it in a press release to every small-town paper, or write it as a guest editorial, and see what happens.

3) All of that said, no one has ever ridden into state office on the strength of winning the 1,300 voters of Garfield County. He has to pound Pierce, capture King, and snatch Snohomish to win.

4)....which is why the WASL results this year could be the dealbreaker for Bergeson's campaign. If a large portion of the I-5 districts see more schools falling into AYP, and if the parents start being told that their children are attending failing schools, that could get bloody. Then the status quo becomes the enemy, and Terry Bergeson is the status quo.

I'm not convinced that Dorn is the guy, but it's a conversation that we need to have.

Read more here, if any.

The Mitch and Shelly Short Story Continues

That headline might be unfair, because Shelly Short hasn't been implicated in the case against her husband, but when the wife is a candidate for elected office and the husband is facing arraignment it's proper to discuss them together.

I've written about this case before; Mitch Short is accused of stealing money from the Northeast Washington Fair, about $3000, while his wife is running to replace Bob Sump as Representative for the 7th Legislative District. Mitch is looking at an arraignment on August 26th, but the story is all over the papers right now, in the weekend before the primary.

The shorts are portraying it as politics at its worst:

"I'm really tired of the one-sided nature of this," Shelly Short said. "This has, frankly, been nothing less than a public lynching, done to derail my campaign."

...but the missing piece there is why people would want to derail her campaign. This can't be partisan--all the other candidates for the office are Republicans, too. It makes you wonder.

Something else from the Spokesman article that also made me a little sad:

Turplesmith noted in charging documents that the Shorts were in debt at the time Mitch Short wrote the allegedly improper checks. Court records show Discover Bank won a $12,328 default judgment against the couple Aug. 17, 2007.

Asked about the judgment, Shelly Short said, "We are checking on those records to determine if that's actually the case.

"At no point has there been any attempt to garnish and, frankly, I was not served with any documentation on any complaint." Was she saying she didn't know about the Discover Bank lawsuit?

"I'm telling you that I had never been served," Short said. "That's the distinction."

She declined to comment further when asked whether her husband was served.

Court records show a process server delivered the complaint to Mitch Short personally on June 12, 2007, at the couple's home at 1591 Swiss Valley Road, near Addy, Wash.

Court documents also show Superior Court Judge Al Nielson issued writs of garnishment on Oct. 23, 2007, and March 6. By the time of the second writ, the couple's Discover credit card debt had grown to $13,323.

That's an awful lot of credit card debt. Was there a family emergency that caused them to fall behind? Are the Shorts just not good with money? What is the story here?

Running for office sucks. When you put yourself out there as a leader you're really putting yourself out there, warts and all. I think that Shelly would be a great Representative for the 7th, and I've got a ton of respect for the knowledge base and energy she'd bring to the job, but stories like this that get people thinking the worst--they're no good.

Read more here, if any.

The Joy of Being a Single Issue Voter

My voter's guide came in the mail today, and as has been my habit the past few years I went through and read all the position statements in preparation for the primary next month. Good times.

A race that I don't get to vote on but that has been getting a ton of attention is the 6th LD contest involving Republicans Kevin Parker and Mel Lindauer, currently held by Democrat Don Barlowe. Parker and Lindauer have been going at each other pretty hard (think Obama v. Hillary, but local), and it's a primary to watch.

My biggest issue is always education, so that's the first thing I look for whenever I read on a candidate. I know that politics is a game that lends itself to blurbs, but it is possible to be too general. Take what Parker says in the voter's guide regarding education:

My top priorities are building a first class education system by funding the fundamentals first;

....and that's it. Sounds nice, what with the alliterative "fun" and all, but what does it really mean?

So I went to Parker's website, here, to see if he'd expanded on that idea at all. Here's what his site says in whole:

Education: Every student deserves the opportunity to be successful for the 21st Century job market. We need to fight a real problem with the hope of real results. The legislature should fund education first and fund the basics of education while preparing students for higher education or trade school opportunities.

Sounds like more education funding, then. That's my kind of guy! But wait....

Economy/Government Spending: It is time controlled spending and accountability is emphasized in the legislative budgeting process. The Senate Ways and Means projects a 2.4 billion dollar deficit next session. We need a voice that calls government to live within its means. Spokane cannot only be a great place to live, but it must also be an equally great place to work. This community needs a representative who fosters job growth and economic development.

So we have fund the fundamentals, without identifying what the fundamentals/basics are. We need to fight a real problem, but we never identify what that problem is. I'm sure (?) that he's elaborated on his education viewpoint during town hall meetings and such, but for the people in his district who vote education, like I do, he hasn't given them much to go on.

And I don't think that's a very good strategy in an urban district like the 6th.

Read more here, if any.