When the Math is Too Cute By Half

One of the most fun faces to watch statewide is going to be the contest for State Senate in the 6th Legislative District (suburban Spokane); by the time November is done, I expect this to be one of the most expensive and negative races we've ever seen.

Michael Baumgartner, the challenger, put out this email yesterday taking shots at Chris Marr:

My opponent has tried to blame his poor primary results on low Democratic turnout. But the numbers on the ground don’t bear this out. There were 9,658 Republican presidential primary voters and 9,288 Democrat presidential primary voters who turned out last week. This breaks down to a 1.95% advantage for a Republican candidate in the 6th District. My lead in the primary is 6.6% so among independents, I earned 55.4% of the vote compared to my opponent’s 44.6%.

What this particular bit of prestidigitation asks you to accept is that the presidential primaries in 2008 meant anything. For a quick review, Horse's Ass fisks a Joni Balter column from that week. Remember, the Republicans used the caucuses--not the primaries--to allocate their delegates; there was a bit of a kerfuffle about the state being called for McCain when Huckabee was still in the running. This was also the pick-a-party primary, one of the dumber ideas to come down the pipe.

In short--I don't know why Baumgartner would want to fall back on that particular bit of data. It's meaningless. This feels like a factoid an intern came up with to justify their time.

That knife cuts both ways, though. From Chris Marr's website:

Outspent, and viciously attacked… and STILL the top Democratic performer in the 6th!

Absolutely true, but not at all meaningful. In the two House races in the 6th, one was unopposed (Rep. Kevin Parker), and the other featured a hotly-contested Republican contest between Shelly O'Quinn and John Ahern with a rather blah Democrat (John Driscoll) taking what was left of the vote. Were I Marr I'd be making sure everyone knows that there were 26,000+ votes cast in the House race for Republicans, but only 21,200 for the Republican senate candidate, Baumgartner. If the partisans were really turning out, why wouldn't they have turned out in the Senate race as well?

It's going to be a slobberknocker.

Read more here, if any.

The Joy of Being a Single Issue Voter

My voter's guide came in the mail today, and as has been my habit the past few years I went through and read all the position statements in preparation for the primary next month. Good times.

A race that I don't get to vote on but that has been getting a ton of attention is the 6th LD contest involving Republicans Kevin Parker and Mel Lindauer, currently held by Democrat Don Barlowe. Parker and Lindauer have been going at each other pretty hard (think Obama v. Hillary, but local), and it's a primary to watch.

My biggest issue is always education, so that's the first thing I look for whenever I read on a candidate. I know that politics is a game that lends itself to blurbs, but it is possible to be too general. Take what Parker says in the voter's guide regarding education:

My top priorities are building a first class education system by funding the fundamentals first;

....and that's it. Sounds nice, what with the alliterative "fun" and all, but what does it really mean?

So I went to Parker's website, here, to see if he'd expanded on that idea at all. Here's what his site says in whole:

Education: Every student deserves the opportunity to be successful for the 21st Century job market. We need to fight a real problem with the hope of real results. The legislature should fund education first and fund the basics of education while preparing students for higher education or trade school opportunities.

Sounds like more education funding, then. That's my kind of guy! But wait....

Economy/Government Spending: It is time controlled spending and accountability is emphasized in the legislative budgeting process. The Senate Ways and Means projects a 2.4 billion dollar deficit next session. We need a voice that calls government to live within its means. Spokane cannot only be a great place to live, but it must also be an equally great place to work. This community needs a representative who fosters job growth and economic development.

So we have fund the fundamentals, without identifying what the fundamentals/basics are. We need to fight a real problem, but we never identify what that problem is. I'm sure (?) that he's elaborated on his education viewpoint during town hall meetings and such, but for the people in his district who vote education, like I do, he hasn't given them much to go on.

And I don't think that's a very good strategy in an urban district like the 6th.

Read more here, if any.